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Six weeks to LOI: a lean consumer diligence plan for PE deal teams

TL;DR

In a short process you cannot boil the ocean. Pressure-test repeat, pricing power, switching and new-product trial in that order.
Week-by-week: lock assumptions, run simulated customer studies, optionally add live interview checks, then write the IC-ready customer page.
Every result is a labeled input next to management's plan, not a substitute for legal, quality of earnings or ops work.
Broader framing sits on commercial diligence. Results come as a report. An ongoing data stream and an API are in build.

Neon Blue builds simulated audiences of a consumer target's customers, AI models that answer the way a defined group of people would, grounded in Neon Blue's own paid studies and AI-moderated interviews with real people. For PE deal teams with about six weeks to LOI and limited diligence budget, this plan sequences the customer reads that most often make or break a consumer thesis.

What must a six-week consumer plan cover?

Most lower-middle-market consumer models rest on four customer claims. Rank them by how much of the plan each claim carries, then test the top ones first.

Plan claim	Customer question	Primary study
Repeat and retention hold	Will current customers keep buying at the same rate?	Repeat and churn intent
Price increases stick	At the planned price, do they keep buying, buy less or switch?	Price increase tolerance
The brand wins or holds share	Will rivals' customers move, and will ours leave?	Brand switching
New products add revenue	Who trials, who repeats, and what gets replaced?	Trial and repeat / purchase intent

If the model is membership-led, add membership fee tolerance. If it is traffic-led retail, add foot traffic and basket reads from the commercial diligence playbook.

What does the week-by-week plan look like?

Weeks 1 to 2: lock the customer assumptions

Pull the four claims above from the CIM or management deck.
Write one falsifiable customer question per claim (who, what price or offer, what time window).
Define audiences: current customers, lapsed customers, rivals' customers, each with the segment cuts that matter (heavy vs light, tenure, income, channel).
Decide which two claims are must-have before LOI and which can slip to post-LOI if time blows up.

Weeks 2 to 4: run the simulated studies

Field the must-have studies first (usually repeat and pricing).
Use the same segment cuts across studies so tables stack in the deal file.
Keep question lists short: rebuild recent behavior, forward intent, why, substitution.
Start the secondary studies (switching, launch trial) as soon as must-haves are in field.

Weeks 4 to 5: optional live interview check

Pick ten to twenty live interviews on the segments where the simulated read is most surprising or most material to value.
Use the same core questions so you can compare themes, not a new discussion guide from scratch.
How simulated audiences work explains how the simulated layer is grounded; live interviews are the secondary check, not the whole plan.

Weeks 5 to 6: write the LOI customer page

One page per claim: management's number, simulated segment table, live themes if any, and the labeled input you will underwrite.
Flag which claims are still open post-LOI.
Bring the page to IC with the rest of commercial diligence, not as a standalone "survey says" memo.

What does a six-week study sprint look like on a deal?

Hypothetical: a PE team is looking at a lower-middle-market specialty food brand with a plan that assumes repeat rates hold and a mid-single-digit price increase sticks, with six weeks to LOI.

Week 1 questions locked: "Will you buy this brand at the same pace in the next three months?" and "At this new price, would you keep buying, buy less, switch, or stop?"
Audience: buyers in the last six months, split by heavy vs light, tenure and channel; plus lapsed buyers from the last year; plus buyers of the top rival.
Week 3 delivery: repeat intent table and price-response table by segment.
Week 4 to 5: short live interviews with heavy buyers who said they would cut or switch.
Week 6: IC page with both tables labeled as simulated, live themes in an appendix, and a clear note on what remains open post-LOI.

Want this run on your own deal? start a study.

What should you defer past LOI?

Full brand-tracking batteries and long max-diff feature lists.
International markets not in the base case.
New product concepts that are not in the five-year plan presented to IC.
Ops, supply chain and quality-of-earnings work that customer intent cannot answer.

Deferring is fine. Pretending a six-week process covered everything is not. Role context for who owns the customer page sits on PE deal team.

What are the limits of a six-week consumer plan?

Stated intent is not a substitute for cohort retention from the company's own data room. Use both.
A short process will miss rare segments unless you prioritize them up front.
Treat each read as one directional input, not a settled number.
Legal, accounting and operational diligence stay on their own tracks.

Questions about six-week consumer diligence

Is six weeks enough for real customer work?

Enough for the two or three claims that carry the model, not for every research wish list. That is the point of the ranking step in week 1.

Do we need a consulting firm CDD workstream too?

Often yes for category and competitor structure. This plan covers the customer-intent layer you can run in parallel without waiting on a long workstream.

Can we start before full data-room access?

Yes. Audience definitions can start from how management describes customers. Refine segments when data-room cohorts arrive.

Does Neon Blue recommend deal terms or entry price?

No. Neon Blue answers customer questions by segment. It does not set price, structure or IC recommendations.

How do I start a study?

Bring the target, the six-week calendar and the two customer claims that carry the most value. Start a study.