Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Q2 2026: how to test the consumer questions investors asked

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO), the largest independent McDonald's franchisee in Latin America and the Caribbean, reported second-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, Aug 13, 2026. Investors asked four consumer questions. A fund can answer each with a Neon Blue study well before the next earnings call.

How can a fund test whether Arcos Dorados' Economia value platform rebuilds Brazil traffic?

To test whether Arcos Dorados' Economia value platform rebuilds Brazil traffic, a fund can run a Neon Blue value and visit-intent study on Brazilian QSR guests. Neon Blue returns who builds a four-item combo under $4, promotion sensitivity and 30-day return intent by income.

From the call. Management said Brazil comps rebounded after the local team boosted the Economia value platform, where guests can make a four-item combo for less than $4, alongside targeted digital campaigns and World Cup marketing. QSR volumes in the country were said to be turning positive in third-party data, and McDonald's guest traffic in the Arcos Dorados footprint remained more than two times the nearest competitor. Management didn't say how much of the rebound is Economia versus event marketing.

The study

• Audience. Adults 18 and older in Brazil who ate at a QSR in the past month. Split by McDonald's guests vs other QSR guests, cut by income.
• Questions to field (local currency steps are test levels you set).
  1. Have you used Economia or a similar McDonald's value combo in the past 30 days? [Yes / No / Not sure]
  2. How likely are you to visit McDonald's in the next 7 days? [0 to 10]
  3. If Economia paused for a month, how would your visits change? [No change / A little less / A lot less / I'd stop]
  4. Which matters more for your next visit? [Economia under $4 / A digital deal / A World Cup or event item / Convenience]
  5. What would make you choose McDonald's more often in Brazil? Tell us in your own words.
• What comes back. Visit intent and value dependency by income. Useful as a pre-earnings consumer check.
• Time to answer. Well before the next earnings call.

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How can a fund test whether Arcos Dorados loyalty members visit five times as often?

To test whether Arcos Dorados loyalty members who redeem points visit five times as often, a fund can run a Neon Blue loyalty program engagement study. Neon Blue returns identified-sales intent, redemption behavior and visit frequency by market.

From the call. Management said identified sales surpassed 28% of total sales, the highest guest identification rate in company history, and that active loyalty members who redeem points tend to visit five times as frequently as non-loyalty members. Digital sales penetration also reached record levels. Management didn't say how much of the frequency gap is points-driven versus guests who were already heavy users.

The study

• Audience. Adults 18 and older across major Arcos Dorados markets who visited McDonald's in the past 3 months. Split by loyalty membership and whether they redeemed points.
• Questions to field.
  1. Are you in the McDonald's loyalty program in your market? [Yes / No / Not sure]
  2. How many times did you visit in the past 30 days? [0 / 1 to 2 / 3 to 5 / 6 or more]
  3. Did you redeem points on your last visit? [Yes / No / Not a member]
  4. If points rewards paused for a month, how would your visits change? [No change / A little less / A lot less / I'd stop]
  5. Why do you identify or skip identifying as a loyalty guest? Tell us in your own words.
• What comes back. Frequency and redemption lift by market.
• Time to answer. Well before the next earnings call.

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How can a fund test whether World Cup marketing lifts traffic beyond match days?

To test whether World Cup marketing lifts traffic beyond match days, a fund can run a Neon Blue event and purchase intent for a new product study on guests exposed to Mundialista sandwiches and related offers. Neon Blue returns pre-event vs during-event visit intent and whether premium sandwiches stick after the tournament.

From the call. Management said exclusive World Cup sponsorship drove digital engagement, brand favorability to all-time highs, and premium sandwich sales growth, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, after about three months of pre-tournament campaigns including Mundialista sandwiches and sticker books. June match days had a negative volume impact during games, which is why anticipation marketing started early. Management didn't say how much of the favorability lift remains after the tournament ends.

The study

• Audience. Adults 18 and older in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia or Mexico who follow football and eat QSR monthly. Cut by whether they bought a Mundialista or themed sandwich.
• Questions to field.
  1. Did you buy a World Cup-themed McDonald's item this year? [Yes / No / Not sure]
  2. How did your McDonald's visits change during the tournament month? [More / Same / Less / I stopped on match days]
  3. How likely are you to keep visiting at the higher rate now that the tournament is over? [0 to 10]
  4. Which kept you engaged more? [Mundialista sandwiches / Digital offers / Sticker books / Brand ads / Nothing]
  5. What would make a sports partnership change your next visit? Tell us in your own words.
• What comes back. Post-event visit retention and ranked campaign drivers by country.
• Time to answer. Well before the next earnings call.

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How can a fund test whether McCafé for Everyone and local value platforms hold traffic in Mexico?

To test whether McCafé for Everyone and local value platforms hold traffic in Mexico amid softer consumption, a fund can run a Neon Blue value-perception study on Mexican guests. Neon Blue returns price-increase tolerance and whether value platforms offset a tough compare versus last year's promotions.

From the call. Management said NOLAD faced a demanding comparison, including a prior-year promotion and calendar differences, while consumer spending stayed under pressure, yet the division remained resilient with positive comparable traffic helped by brand strength and the McCafé Para Todos value platform in Mexico. Management didn't say how elastic Mexico traffic is to another price step above inflation.

The study

• Audience. Adults 18 and older in Mexico who ate at a QSR in the past month. Cut by income and McDonald's vs other QSR last visit.
• Questions to field (local currency steps are test levels you set).
  1. Compared with other QSRs, is McDonald's [A better value / About the same / Worse value]?
  2. Have you used McCafé for Everyone or another McDonald's value platform recently? [Yes / No / Not sure]
  3. If everyday prices rose with inflation and value platforms stayed, what would you do? [Visit the same / Visit less / Switch brands / Use delivery deals only]
  4. Which would most protect your next visit? [McCafé for Everyone / A loyalty reward / A limited sandwich / Lower delivery fees]
  5. What would make you visit McDonald's more often in Mexico right now? Tell us in your own words.
• What comes back. Value resilience and switching risk by income, as a consumer channel check.
• Time to answer. Well before the next earnings call.

Run this study

How Neon Blue runs consumer studies for funds

Neon Blue runs studies on simulated audiences grounded in real people's data. A fund brings a question tied to one variable in its model and gets the answer back by segment. See consumer research for funds.

• Scoped to the variable. Each study is built around the audience and questions behind one model line. Neon Blue answers the consumer question, never the call on the stock.
• Simulated, and kept separate. Simulated answers are kept separate from real responses. Bring your own audience data, or add live follow-ups through the AI interviewer.
• Private. Client questions stay private and are never used for training. Neon Blue has completed a SOC 2 Type II audit.
• Cost. A consumer study costs a fraction of a round of expert calls.

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What to watch before Arcos Dorados' Q3 2026 call

• Economia and Brazil volumes. Value platform plus industry volume recovery. Test: visit intent with and without Economia.
• Loyalty identification. Identified sales above 28% and redeemers' frequency. Test: points dependency by market.
• Post-World Cup retention. Whether favorability and premium sandwich habits hold. Test: visit intent after the event.

FAQ

What consumer questions came out of Arcos Dorados' Q2 2026 earnings call?

Whether Economia rebuilds Brazil traffic, whether loyalty redeemers visit five times as often, whether World Cup marketing lifts traffic beyond match days, and whether McCafé for Everyone holds Mexico traffic. Each can be tested with a Neon Blue study.

How can I test Economia before Arcos Dorados reports Q3 2026?

Run a Neon Blue value study on Brazilian QSR guests. You see who depends on the under-$4 combo and who would still visit if it paused.

How long does a Neon Blue study take?

A Neon Blue study comes back well before the next earnings call.

Does Neon Blue give a view on ARCO stock?

No. Neon Blue answers the consumer question behind a variable in your model. It doesn't make stock calls.